Pitchcast / Premier League 2026/27

Premier League predicted table

Projected points and finishing chances for all 20 clubs.

Results through 1 Nov 2026 · dated forecast · pc-xg-2.0.0

No player or injury effects.

Season forecast for each team
#
1	Arsenal	24 (9)	82.1 74–90	71%	100%	100%	—
2	Manchester City	21 (9)	75.8 67–84	25%	97%	100%	—
3	Brighton	19 (9)	65.9 57–75	2%	72%	90%	<1%
4	Liverpool	15 (9)	60.7 52–69	<1%	39%	69%	<1%
5	Chelsea	16 (9)	58.7 50–67	<1%	27%	57%	<1%
6	Bournemouth	12 (9)	58.6 50–67	<1%	27%	58%	<1%
7	Brentford	14 (9)	55.0 46–64	<1%	13%	36%	1%
8	Leeds United	11 (9)	52.7 44–61	<1%	8%	24%	1%
9	Aston Villa	12 (9)	52.1 43–61	<1%	6%	20%	2%
10	Manchester United	7 (9)	52.0 43–61	<1%	6%	21%	2%
11	Everton	10 (8)	46.7 38–55	<1%	1%	6%	9%
12	Tottenham Hotspur	12 (9)	46.7 38–55	<1%	1%	5%	8%
13	Nottingham Forest	6 (9)	46.3 38–55	<1%	1%	5%	9%
14	Newcastle United	11 (8)	46.0 37–55	—	1%	5%	11%
15	Fulham	9 (9)	42.8 35–51	—	<1%	2%	21%
16	Coventry City	9 (9)	42.0 34–50	—	<1%	1%	26%
17	Ipswich Town	11 (9)	41.1 33–49	—	<1%	1%	30%
18	Crystal Palace	7 (9)	37.8 30–46	—	<1%	<1%	52%
19	Sunderland	5 (9)	37.7 30–46	—	<1%	<1%	51%
20	Hull City	11 (9)	33.3 26–41	—	<1%	<1%	78%

1Arsenal24 pts · 9 pl
Title
71%
Top 4
100%
Top 6
100%
Relegation
—
Proj. 82.1 pts (74–90)
2Manchester City21 pts · 9 pl
Title
25%
Top 4
97%
Top 6
100%
Relegation
—
Proj. 75.8 pts (67–84)
3Brighton19 pts · 9 pl
Title
2%
Top 4
72%
Top 6
90%
Relegation
<1%
Proj. 65.9 pts (57–75)
4Liverpool15 pts · 9 pl
Title
<1%
Top 4
39%
Top 6
69%
Relegation
<1%
Proj. 60.7 pts (52–69)
5Chelsea16 pts · 9 pl
Title
<1%
Top 4
27%
Top 6
57%
Relegation
<1%
Proj. 58.7 pts (50–67)
6Bournemouth12 pts · 9 pl
Title
<1%
Top 4
27%
Top 6
58%
Relegation
<1%
Proj. 58.6 pts (50–67)
7Brentford14 pts · 9 pl
Title
<1%
Top 4
13%
Top 6
36%
Relegation
1%
Proj. 55.0 pts (46–64)
8Leeds United11 pts · 9 pl
Title
<1%
Top 4
8%
Top 6
24%
Relegation
1%
Proj. 52.7 pts (44–61)
9Aston Villa12 pts · 9 pl
Title
<1%
Top 4
6%
Top 6
20%
Relegation
2%
Proj. 52.1 pts (43–61)
10Manchester United7 pts · 9 pl
Title
<1%
Top 4
6%
Top 6
21%
Relegation
2%
Proj. 52.0 pts (43–61)
11Everton10 pts · 8 pl
Title
<1%
Top 4
1%
Top 6
6%
Relegation
9%
Proj. 46.7 pts (38–55)
12Tottenham Hotspur12 pts · 9 pl
Title
<1%
Top 4
1%
Top 6
5%
Relegation
8%
Proj. 46.7 pts (38–55)
13Nottingham Forest6 pts · 9 pl
Title
<1%
Top 4
1%
Top 6
5%
Relegation
9%
Proj. 46.3 pts (38–55)
14Newcastle United11 pts · 8 pl
Title
—
Top 4
1%
Top 6
5%
Relegation
11%
Proj. 46.0 pts (37–55)
15Fulham9 pts · 9 pl
Title
—
Top 4
<1%
Top 6
2%
Relegation
21%
Proj. 42.8 pts (35–51)
16Coventry City9 pts · 9 pl
Title
—
Top 4
<1%
Top 6
1%
Relegation
26%
Proj. 42.0 pts (34–50)
17Ipswich Town11 pts · 9 pl
Title
—
Top 4
<1%
Top 6
1%
Relegation
30%
Proj. 41.1 pts (33–49)
18Crystal Palace7 pts · 9 pl
Title
—
Top 4
<1%
Top 6
<1%
Relegation
52%
Proj. 37.8 pts (30–46)
19Sunderland5 pts · 9 pl
Title
—
Top 4
<1%
Top 6
<1%
Relegation
51%
Proj. 37.7 pts (30–46)
20Hull City11 pts · 9 pl
Title
—
Top 4
<1%
Top 6
<1%
Relegation
78%
Proj. 33.3 pts (26–41)

How this forecast works

Recorded match results inform team ratings. The remaining season is simulated 100,000 times, keeping played results fixed. The points range assumes those ratings are right; it does not include uncertainty in the ratings. No player, injury or rest-day adjustments are included.

Snapshot dated 1 Nov 2026Results through 1 Nov 2026 · no scheduled results missing as of 1 Nov 2026 · next fixtures 2 Nov 2026

Season: 2026/27
Data cutoff: 1 Nov 2026
Source fetched: 1 Nov 2026, 23:17 UTC
Model run: 1 Nov 2026, 23:17 UTC
Simulations: 100,000 · seed 358621236
Model: pc-xg-2.0.0

Pitchcast app engine · Results data: OpenFootball (CC0), with validated final-score supplementation where available. Historical shot-based expected goals: Understat.com. Football data provided by the Football-Data.org API

Seed 358621236. Sampling noise is separate from model uncertainty. Source records and checksums are retained with the snapshot.

Methodology Track record

Premier League predicted table

Get the Pitchcast briefing